The economic sentiment in the German plastic packaging and film industry is brightening slightly. This is shown by the current economic survey conducted by the IK Industrial Association of Plastic Packaging among 112 manufacturers. For the fourth quarter of 2026, sales expectations are improving in particular, while profit and cost pressures remain high and the export business is strained.
The companies assess the overall economic situation less negatively than in the previous quarter. 55 percent of the surveyed IK members rate the situation in Germany as satisfactory, 42 percent as bad, and 3 percent as good. In the third quarter, 59 percent still assessed the situation as bad. The IK interprets the development as a cyclical stabilization at a low level.
Sales forecasts improve
Sales are also showing a slight easing. While the majority of companies continue to expect stable volumes, the proportion of manufacturers that expect rising sales in the fourth quarter increases from 12 to around 20 percent. At the same time, the proportion of companies with negative expectations falls from 32 to 25 percent. The balance of sales expectations improves from minus 19.6 to minus 5.4 points.
Despite an improvement, the situation remains tense regarding earnings. Around 40 percent of respondents expect earnings to decline in the fourth quarter. In the previous quarter, this figure was just under 48 percent. Now, just under 12 percent expect an improvement, after around 9 percent in the third quarter. The balance of earnings expectations is rising from minus 39 to minus 29 points.
Raw material supply stable, cost pressure remains
The industry also expects more stability in the supply of raw materials. After assessments regarding availability had fluctuated greatly over the course of the year, 69 percent of companies expect stable conditions for the fourth quarter. Positive and negative expectations largely balance each other. The IK currently does not see raw material availability as the major challenge, but rather the continued high price and cost pressure and its impact on profitability.
„The crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has put the plastic packaging industry under an extraordinary strain this year. Raw material markets, supply chains, and costs came under significant pressure in the short term. The fact that the industry has managed this phase in parallel with the high implementation requirements of the EU Packaging Regulation PPWR since August shows the strong economic strength of the industry. Our companies remain capable of acting even in a difficult environment. This underscores the importance of the plastic packaging and film industry for security of supply, industrial value creation, and the economic location of Germany.“
Dr. Laura Müller, Economic Affairs Officer at the IK
Regarding employment, stability also prevails. 70 percent of companies do not plan to change their employee numbers; 9 percent expect to add staff. 21 percent, however, expect to reduce their workforce.
Sector between crises and implementation of PPWR
In addition to the economic situation, the IK also mentions developments in the raw material markets and in the supply chains, as well as the implementation of the EU Packaging Regulation PPWR, as factors that are putting pressure on the industry.
According to the association, the plastics packaging and film industry represented by the IK employs more than 90,000 people and generates an annual turnover of 25 billion euros. Plastic packaging thus accounts for 22 percent of the German packaging market.
Source: IK Industrial Association for Plastic Packaging
