{"id":68516,"date":"2022-09-12T15:44:43","date_gmt":"2022-09-12T13:44:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/packaging-journal.de\/?p=68516"},"modified":"2022-09-12T15:44:43","modified_gmt":"2022-09-12T13:44:43","slug":"ifo-institute-expects-record-inflation-and-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/packaging-journal.de\/en\/ifo-institut-erwartet-rekord-inflation-und-rezession\/","title":{"rendered":"ifo Institute expects record inflation and recession"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Compared to June, the ifo has significantly lowered its growth forecast for 2023 by 4.0 percentage points and raised its inflation forecast by a substantial 6.0 percentage points. These are unusually high changes in such a short period of time.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The ifo Institute has drastically cut its forecast for German economic growth. \u201eWe are heading into a winter recession,\u201c says Timo Wollmersh\u00e4user, head of the ifo Economic Forecasts<\/a>.<\/p>

In the coming year, the Institute now expects a Economic output shrinks by 0.3 per cent<\/strong>, The forecast for this year is only 1.6 per cent growth. Currency devaluation is expected to average 8.1 per cent this year and even 9.3 per cent next year. \u201eThe cutbacks in gas supplies from Russia in the summer and the resulting drastic price increases are putting a damper on the economic recovery after corona. We do not expect a normalisation with 1.8 per cent growth and 2.4 per cent inflation until 2024<\/strong>\u201c he says.<\/p>

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Electricity and gas will be significantly more expensive at the start of the year<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Compared to June, the ifo has significantly lowered its growth forecast for 2023 by 4.0 percentage points and raised its inflation forecast by a substantial 6.0 percentage points. \u201eThese are unusually high changes in such a short period of time,\u201c Wollmersh\u00e4user continues. Energy suppliers adjusted their electricity and gas prices noticeably to the high procurement costs, especially at the beginning of 2023. This will drive the inflation rate up to around 11 per cent in the first quarter<\/strong>. As a result, real household incomes have fallen sharply and purchasing power has declined noticeably. Although the government's third relief package should counteract this decline somewhat, it is far from compensating for it.<\/p>

\u201eThe loss of purchasing power, measured by the decline in real per capita wages by around 3 per cent this year and next, is higher than at any time since the beginning of today's national accounts in 1970,\u201c adds Wollmersh\u00e4user. In the further course of the coming year, the price increase will gradually weaken. The ifo Institute assumes that sufficient gas will be available in winter. Energy prices should therefore stop rising and fall again from spring 2023 at the latest.<\/strong><\/p>

The ifo Institute does not expect any serious impact on the labour market. The increase in employment will only slow down temporarily. The increase in unemployment by a good 50,000 people in the coming year is mainly due to the sharp rise in unemployed Ukrainian citizens in the summer of 2022, who will only be gradually integrated into the labour market.<\/p>

Source: ifo Institute<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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