Time is of the essence: EU quotas for recyclates will apply from 2030 - but there is already a shortage of high-quality PCR. A new study commissioned by Interzero shows a looming gap of around 1 million tonnes. Those who do not act now risk high costs, bottlenecks and penalties. How companies can take countermeasures and secure competitive advantages.
The EU's new Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) obliges all distributors of packaging to set binding minimum usage quotas for post-consumer recyclates (PCR) from 2030. However, high-quality PCR is already scarce and expensive. A study commissioned by Interzero from bp consultants of the Berndt+Partner Group shows that even under optimistic assumptions, there will be a supply gap of around 1 million tonnes in 2030 - with serious consequences for brand manufacturers and packaging producers. Those who only react in a few years' time risk not only penalties, but also production losses and price increases.
In order to enable a well-founded analysis of the current market situation, the independent consultancy was commissioned to prepare a status report. The study examines possible causes of a future PCR shortage, analyses the impact of regulatory requirements and identifies possible solution strategies. To this end, current market data at European level, expert assessments and developments along the value chain were taken into account.
According to the study, 80 % of the experts surveyed are convinced that the PPWR quotas will be implemented as planned - regardless of material availability. At the same time, many companies already report having to search for food-grade PCR for a long time and paying a high price for it.
Five structural causes are driving the shortage:
- Design barriers: complex multilayers, colour carriers and additives prevent high-quality recycling.
- Sorting quality: inadequate separability and incorrect disposal slow down the material flow.
- Limited recycling capacities: especially for food-grade materials.
- Price competition with virgin material: cheap virgin plastics undermine demand for PCR.
- Cross-industry competition: the automotive, construction and electronics sectors are also utilising scarce quantities.
The PCR gap in 2030 - a shortfall of around one million tonnes
The analysis shows that even with increasing rates of chemical recycling and higher mechanical recycling rates, a massive gap remains. This is particularly critical:
- Polypropylene (PP): in high demand in food and cosmetics, but rarely suitable for foodstuffs.
- LDPE & multilayer from household waste streams: technically difficult to recycle.
- Food-grade PCR: under-regulated, under-certified, under-produced.
Closing the gap would require around ten new large-scale plants, none of which are currently operational on an industrial scale. While mechanical recycling is the main source of PCR today, it reaches its limits with complex structures. Chemical recycling can help supplement mechanical recycling in the long term, but is still in the development phase.
Risks for brand manufacturers - and opportunities for first movers
Brand manufacturers are facing a double challenge in view of the PCR shortage: they not only have to meet the binding PPWR quotas, but also ensure their security of supply and minimise cost risks. If the quota is not met, there is not only the threat of penalties, which are still being formulated in the delegated acts, but also considerable damage to their image. Without secure long-term access to high-quality PCR, production stoppages could become a reality - with consequences for supply chains and customer relationships. At the same time, it is foreseeable that prices will rise significantly when resources are scarce. Companies that act early, on the other hand, can secure stable quantities at predictable conditions and capitalise on their sustainability performance as a competitive advantage. This is shown by the example of a German dairy company that has already concluded a seven-year contract with fixed PCR volumes, a price formula and proof of origin in 2022. While many competitors were struggling with supply problems in 2024, its production continued without interruption - and at constant costs.
In order to secure the supply of post-consumer recyclates in the long term, companies should develop and implement a clear strategy now. A key lever lies in consistent design for recycling: packaging must be designed in such a way that it can be efficiently utilised in the recycling process. This also includes gradually replacing complex multilayer constructions with recyclable monomaterials. At the same time, it is crucial not to rely solely on short-term tenders, but to establish reliable supply partnerships with recyclers and dual systems - ideally through long-term contracts with clearly defined quality and origin standards. Investments in new technologies such as chemical recycling should also be examined at an early stage, although their real volume effect by 2030 must be assessed realistically. Transparent key figures help to make progress measurable and to keep an eye on targets. It is equally important to establish clear responsibilities within the company so that the implementation of measures does not get lost in day-to-day business, but becomes part of a binding roadmap.
The way forward
The coming months will be decisive in determining whether companies can not only operate in compliance with the law in 2030, but also remain competitive. The analysis makes it clear that waiting is not an option, as every month lost increases dependency on scarce resources and increases cost risks. Those who act now will benefit in several ways - by securing material quantities early, keeping prices stable, strengthening their competitive position and sending a clear sustainability message to customers, investors and the public. This is not just about technical adjustments, but about a strategic change along the entire value chain: from packaging design and material selection to long-term supply contracts and the integration of circular economy goals into the corporate strategy.
The recycling quotas and minimum proportions of recyclate provided for in the PPWR are key levers for establishing a truly circular economy. They set binding targets that create investment security and drive the expansion of innovative recycling technologies.
A weakening of these targets would not only jeopardise existing progress, but also slow down urgently needed investments in infrastructure, technology and markets. Instead, the quotas should be seen as a catalyst - for new business models, for the expansion of closed material cycles and for a future that conserves resources.
Interzero supports companies in this change with in-depth analyses, the optimisation of packaging according to recycling criteria, the targeted sourcing of PCR materials and the development of individual roadmaps to meet PPWR requirements.
Whitepaper on the study
The full white paper on the study „Circular Packaging 2030 - Strategies against the PCR shortage“ contains detailed market figures and recommendations for action and is available to download free of charge.
packaging journal 4/2025
This article was published in packaging journal 4/2025 (September).
ePaper
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