The mixed price fluctuations from the end of 2024 continued in the first three months of 2025.
Polyethylene led the way in terms of price increases, as both HDPE and LDPE prices rose by 3 % and 4 % respectively compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of 2023. In contrast, 60 g/m² one-side coated paper and 12 micron PET saw declines of -3 % and -2 % respectively compared to Q4 2024. Aluminium foil (7 micron) continued its upward trend with an increase of 3 %, while BOPA film (15 micron) gained a modest 2 % and BOPP (20 micron) remained stable, according to figures from Flexible Packaging Europe (FPE).
Santiago Castro, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, adds to the figures: „Prices paid in Europe for flexible packaging materials fluctuated in the first quarter of 2025 due to raw material price fluctuations, logistics issues and factors in overseas markets. The BOPET price reductions were largely due to raw material declines. The decline in paper prices is due to underutilised production capacity and lower than expected energy prices. Higher raw material prices are responsible for the price increases for aluminium foil and BOPA. BOPP prices remained relatively unchanged due to persistently weak demand and oversupply. Overall demand for flexible packaging remained weak in the first quarter due to lower consumer spending and a shift towards leaner inventory management. Prices for all substrates are expected to increase in the next quarter, mainly due to higher raw material costs.“
Industry cautiously optimistic for the rest of 2025
Kaushik Mitra, Chemical Market Analyst for LDPE and HDPE, explains: „The sharp rise in PE prices in the first quarter is due to raw material price inflation and lower inventories as a result of reduced imports. Import figures were impacted by low order intake and supply chain bottlenecks. PE demand remains weak due to macroeconomic factors and continued market uncertainty, although some sectors such as construction, consumer goods and packaging are showing signs of stability. Potential EU tariffs on PE from 12 April caused volatility and nervousness in the market, as despite the huge global supply capacity, the European market could be impacted by these measures in the short term before returning to normal later in the year.“
Guido Aufdenkamp from FPE explained his view of the figures as follows: „While raw material supply and logistics issues continue to weigh on the flexible packaging market, there are signs that overall demand will continue to increase slightly after a weak 2023 and recovery in 2024. While geopolitical and trade policy developments continue to cause uncertainty in supply and demand, the industry is cautiously optimistic for the remainder of 2025.“
Source: Flexible Packaging Europe (FPE)
