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Study on parcel delivery in 2040

What will parcel delivery look like in 2040? Researchers at WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management asked themselves this question and have now published their findings in the new Delphie study.

What will parcel delivery look like in 2040? Researchers at WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management asked themselves this question and have now published their findings in the new Delphie study.

Not only logistics companies, but also online retailers and local authorities are concerned with this issue, what the future of last-mile delivery should look like. As part of the scientific Delphie study, experts from various sectors have now given their assessments of which developments are likely to occur in the future. 

The study of the WHU comes to the conclusion that in 2040 flexibility should be the main focus for customers. It is likely that they will want customised delivery options that adapt to their everyday lives and are willing to disclose personal data for this purpose.

Logistics service providers should therefore are already expanding their range of services, to adapt to individual wishes. Suppliers should also prioritise environmentally friendly delivery. 

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Delivery exclusively with electric vehicles

Sustainability will be an indispensable factor in the last mile of delivery in the future. By 2040, only electric vehicles that run on sustainably generated electricity are expected to be used as delivery vans. Experts also assume that cargo bikes will increasingly be used in city centres.

That According to the study, it is not foreseeable that new technologies will completely replace traditional delivery options. Although there are potential uses for drones and robots, these remain limited. For example, it is assumed that drones can be used more effectively in rural areas than in city centres. And Robots that only have a limited radius, will probably be used more in campus-like structures.

The experts assume that this is the case, that the model of the future is parcel stationsA well-developed network of stationary parcel stations - supplemented by autonomously travelling parcel stations - allows logistics service providers to respond to their customers' wishes. The stations can be supplied flexibly, even at night, which contribute to easing the traffic situation in city centres can. It therefore makes sense for logistics and e-commerce companies to invest in expansion today.

Team of experts assesses future theses

So not everything will be new and different in 2040. Proven delivery routes will most likely remain the same, but with a focus on environmental friendliness. However, the sector will become more segmented due to new technologies and the trend towards individualised delivery: Different types of delivery will become established depending on the goods, customer requirements and delivery area.

For the Delphi study, the researchers formulated hypotheses for the future, which they presented to a team of experts for assessment. This team comprised 36 members from various sectors, such as logistics services, online retail, science and politics. On the basis of their opinions, the researchers developed future scenarios and derived recommendations for the relevant players in business and politics.

Source: WHU

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