The future of packaging in 2034

A research report by the Retail Institute (Leeds Business School) summarises the views of leading FMCG and packaging players and outlines how the industry should drive forward the circular economy, reliable standards and fact-based regulation by 2034. The authors Ben Mitchell and Olga Munroe derive concrete recommendations for action for industry, politics and society.

The study emphasises that the packaging industry should not wait for politicians to go it alone, but must develop its own system solutions - from national self-sufficiency in secondary raw materials to localised supply chains and the joint development of reusable formats. Recommendations address industry-wide harmonisation of materials, clear LCA guidelines, the fight against greenwashing and coordinated stakeholder storytelling that regains trust.

Recommendations at a glance

At system level, the report calls for industry-driven circular solutions, the development of domestic processing and recycling capacities and the simplification of packaging formats in favour of single-origin, collectable and recyclable monomaterials. At the same time, best-practice reuse models are to be scaled up and harmonised along the value chain. In terms of communication, the group is calling for an overarching, confidence-building approach from politics, business, science and NGOs - if possible supported by a credible industry voice - in order to communicate consistent goals and progress.

Policy, standards and financing

The authors argue for government-led standardisation, uniform LCA requirements, consistent household collections and targeted investment in sorting and recycling technologies, including advanced processes where they are environmentally sound. EPR funds should be earmarked for infrastructure; at the same time, rules against misleading environmental advertising are needed to increase trust. In an environment of geopolitical uncertainty, the focus is shifting to national resilience in the supply of materials; here, a clear materials roadmap with fiscal incentives could guide research and market ramp-up.

Consumers, evidence and trust

A recurring theme is the gap between public perception and systemic reality. The group observes frustration, scepticism towards recycling routes and growing sensitivity to greenwashing. The report therefore calls for independent, empirically robust evidence as a basis for design and regulatory decisions as well as for sober consumer communication that makes conflicts of interest - such as carbon footprint vs. product protection - transparent. Educational initiatives, DRS introductions and co-operative campaigns by industry, NGOs, local authorities and universities are recommended.

Technology, reuse and scaling

Technology is seen as a lever for improving sorting quality, controlling and consumer incentives - from automated recognition and digital take-back logic to AI-supported data analysis. Reuse and refill models have potential, but require time, investment, shared infrastructure and reliable governance to ensure that return rates, hygiene standards and logistics are ecologically and economically sustainable. Case studies such as standardised reusable transport solutions or B2B refill systems illustrate that cooperation, data and enforcement mechanisms are crucial.

Classification for packers and retailers

The report provides a clear roadmap for packaging manufacturers and retailers: strategic long-term planning with fault tolerance, systemic partnerships instead of silo optimisation, coherent scope 1/2/3 strategies and a consistent switch to standardised, circular material portfolios. If the alliance is successful, the Group expects increasing availability of high-quality secondary raw materials, economies of scale, more reliable CO₂ data - and a reliable basis for upcoming regulatory milestones.

Source: Leeds Beckett University