The trade association of the folding carton industry (FFI) considers the current situation in the cartonboard and folding carton market to be very tense. Delivery times for cartonboard and folding cartons have recently increased to an unprecedented extent.
The price structure has moved significantly upwards accordingly. Forward-looking planning of future requirements and sufficient lead time for new projects by customers in the cartonboard and folding carton industry is therefore more than ever the order of the day.
Domestic demand for virgin fibre cartonboard in Asia and North America as well as disruptions in international logistics and the exorbitant rise in freight costs in global trade are also responsible for the fact that the European folding carton market lacked 300,000 tonnes of virgin fibre cartonboard. On the recycled paper side, there was increased demand for many types of recycled paper-based packaging due to the lower volume of waste paper caused by Covid.
Initial forecasts for the European cartonboard and folding carton market in 2021 were recently provided by the British consultant NOA Prism, which was commissioned by the European Folding Carton Association ECMA presented the "European Carton Prospects Report 2021". According to this report, the consultancy estimates an exorbitant year-on-year increase in the order volume of folding boxboard of 10.9 % for the European markets in 2021, with a simultaneous forecast increase in the volume of folding cartons of "only" 3.7 %. Even if these are only current estimates, they are fuelling warnings from industry observers about disruptions in the supply chain.
As a result, the order backlog at the cartonboard mills is growing, leading to a significant increase in delivery times. While the lead time for orders was at an average and usual level of 4-8 weeks in 2020, depending on the type of cartonboard, it increased to 10-20 weeks over the summer - and even longer for special qualities.
"In the current market situation, good, forward-looking planning is essential. Panic and safety purchases lead to additional shortages and are counterproductive. Customers are therefore well advised to plan with sufficient lead time, especially for new projects, in order to avoid new distortions." Andreas Helbig, Spokesman of the FFI Executive Board and Managing Director of SEDA Germany GmbH.
